We’ve got a long way to climb after the fall we just took, but at least we’re climbing.
That’s the good news for the manufacturing industry in the recent semiannual economic forecast from the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM reports that among purchasing and supply chain executives:
Expectations for 2010 are positive as 60% of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2010 than in 2009. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 5.7% net increase in overall revenues for 2010, compared to a 10.7% decrease reported for 2009.
Already, wholesale inventories are rebounding, ticking up 0.3% in October, the most recent tally, and besting analysts’ predictions of a 0.5% slump. Wholesale inventories decreased in every month this year leading up to October, so even a slight reversal is big news. And although lean purists might decry an increase in inventory, I wouldn’t step in to halt this surge. I think most manufacturers are so shell-shocked from last year’s fall that there’s little chance of their becoming over-exuberant. They’ll produce what market demand tells them to produce.
And after years of playing second fiddle to a bustling service sector, the American manufacturing industry is forcing its way back into the limelight. Manufacturers expect revenue to jump 5.7% in 2010, while service providers anticipate just a 1.3% increase. As some observers have pointed out, this may hinder our jobs recovery, since the service sector far outweighs the industrial side of the economy. According to the ISM report, service industries expect labor and benefit costs to hold steady in 2010. Manufacturing jobs may return, though, since respondents expect manufacturing’s labor and benefit costs to rise 1.4% in 2010.
The Atlantic’s Daniel Indiviglio offers a good analysis of the divergent fortunes of the manufacturing and service sectors here.
This is the moment of resurgence. Lean manufacturers will remain lean, producing only enough goods to satisfy the first bites of a consumer emerging from hibernation. Some, of course, will get ahead of themselves, but for the most part I think the recession we just experienced acted as a natural backstop for the over-exuberance of yesteryear. We may be back where we started, but we’re wiser for the journey.
What about you: Has demand returned to your market? Are you keeping inventory in check?



Just in Time Just Isn’t
Is it possible to believe in lean manufacturing and not believe in lean inventory? The more I see, the more I’m convinced it is. I believe strongly in the dogma of waste reduction — the practice invariably makes manufacturing processes better. But I’ve lost my faith in the concept of just-in-time manufacturing. It’s bunk. It doesn’t work.
Inventory is working capital, and working capital shouldn’t sit around idle. I understand this, and no rational person would rail against a system that seeks to minimize expenditures until they’re absolutely necessary. But just-in-time is like world peace — everyone wants it, but the most brilliant minds in the world haven’t figured out how to achieve it. The problem in both cases is complexity. Too many constituents are involved, all with varying agendas and beliefs, and we can’t bring them together and teach them how to sing. Or deliver products on time.
Toyota is the father of just-in-time principles, and even it can’t get it right. In light of that, I think it’s time we decoupled lean and just-in-time. If you’re a manufacturer, work to reduce rework and scrap; improve worker ergonomics to reduce injury; implement a streamlined conveyance system to move work through the production process; slash the number of tasks it takes to complete each step. And even implement just-in-time line-side — use call buttons to trigger replenishment of bins, etc. But don’t pull your hair out over inventory. Your customers won’t wait for you to ramp up to fulfill their order, and your forecast won’t save you because it isn’t correct. The answer is a buffer. What I hear time and time again is that the cost of a buffer is well worth eating when you can promise delivery from stock. Without that assurance, you may well lose the order, and that’s a heavier price to pay in terms of dollars and reputation.
For the vast majority of the manufacturing world, inventory is simply the cost of doing business. There are other tactics in the lean playbook to focus on. Put your resources behind those you can achieve.